
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
5/21 trade #1
Short 3 June 114/115 call verticals for .30. Implied volatility was too high for me to feel comfortable buying a put but just right to sell some volatility and time. The market had already moved down a good amount and in a short period of time but there was still heavy down side risk and one of my rules is to not trade against the immediate and intermediate trends. In the chart below you can see that the 114 call I sold would be above the solid downtrend line further decreasing the interpretable risk. The mathematical probabilities of this trade expiring out of the money (OTM) were 70%. 114 was also above the 61.8% fib retracement line of the current downtrend and May 21 had been a big up day which I believed would retrace a little of its gains the next day.


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